The German Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has published a comprehensive study (in German) on 25 June, 2012 that suggests great potential for shale gas in Germany: 0.7 to 2.3 tcm (trillion cubic meters) or 24.7 to 81.2tcf (trillion cubic feet) of technically recoverable gas from shale may be present. This is considerably more than the estimate of 8tcf from U.S. EIA in April 2011and it also exceeds greatly Germany’s conventional natural gas resources and reserves, which are 0.15 tcm each.

The possible adverse effects of shale gas exploration and production, especially related to hydraulic fracturing operations, are also addressed and evaluated in the study. Modeling of underground fracture propagation was performed, and possible risks of induced seismicity were examined.

The conclusion of the study is: from a geoscientific point of view, environmentally sustainable application of the technology is possible, as long as the law is observed, the necessary technical measures are taken and local baseline studies and pilot surveys are carried out. Hydraulic fracturing is compatible with the protection of freshwater reservoirs.

Natural gas will continue to be an important component of the German energy mix, contributing to a secure energy supply. The BGR scientists conclude that domestic shale gas could be used to counterbalance the current decline in natural gas production in Germany, which is due to the depletion of known natural gas deposits.

The study presents first results of an ongoing project on unconventional hydrocarbons in Germany (NIKO). Links to the study and the press release (in German).